Direct and indirect exposure
Europe received roughly 4% of regional crude and just over 10% of LNG crossing Hormuz in 2025. Direct physical exposure is lower than Asia’s, but international markets transmit the shock to all buyers.
What makes Spain different
Spain imports virtually all the gas it consumes, yet it has diversified supply, links with Algeria and extensive regasification infrastructure. This flexibility can receive different origins but cannot guarantee availability or price during a global crisis.
Oil, diesel and transport
The first channel would be crude prices. Diesel, aviation, logistics and shipping would transmit part of the increase. Refineries would compete for compatible alternative grades.
LNG, power and industry
A loss of Qatari LNG would intensify competition with Asia. When combined-cycle plants set the marginal price, more expensive gas can feed into power. Ceramics, glass, chemicals, fertilisers and other energy-intensive sectors are directly exposed.
Available buffers
EU law requires emergency oil stocks. The IEA describes Spain’s minimum as 92 days of previous-year sales or consumption. Stocks buy time, not indefinite replacement. Gas resilience relies on storage, available LNG, interconnections and demand reduction.
Effect by duration
| Duration | Dominant effect |
|---|---|
| Hours or days | Volatility, insurance, freight and risk premiums. |
| One to three weeks | Inventory use, rescheduling and pressure on diesel and gas. |
| Months | Demand reduction, coordinated intervention, industry and inflation. |
Useful indicators
Brent, diesel cracks, TTF and JKM, freight, LNG entries at Spanish terminals, storage, Algerian flows, IEA decisions and maritime notices.