Independent maritime monitor Automated updates Public methodology

An operational question, not a rhetorical one

The engine does not try to predict political decisions. It answers a narrower question: is there a material, verifiable disruption of maritime transit? A threat, headline or isolated statement is not enough.

The classification is deliberately conservative. When evidence is insufficient or contradictory, the system prefers UNCERTAIN over a strong unsupported conclusion.

Published states

OPEN

Recent evidence indicates operational transit without sufficient signals of meaningful restrictions.

OPEN WITH RESTRICTIONS

The route remains operational, but escorts, threats, incidents, controls, diversions or elevated risk exist.

CLOSED

Sufficient independent confirmation supports an effective, broad disruption.

UNCERTAIN

Signals do not support a reliable conclusion or data is too old.

Decision process

  1. Automated collection of sources and metadata.
  2. Normalisation, deduplication and time checks.
  3. Detection of operational, political and incident signals.
  4. Weighting by official status, independence, recency and agreement.
  5. Conservative thresholds and consistency controls.
  6. Publication of status, confidence, evidence and history.

Known limitations

No open system provides a perfect picture. AIS may have gaps, sources may report late, one story may be syndicated, and some military or commercial operations are not public. Confidence and check time are therefore integral to the result.

Corrections and oversight

Changes are logged. When a source, classification or translation error is identified, it is corrected visibly and the rationale is documented. Read the editorial policy for the full process.