How dependence should be measured
There is no single correct ranking. Direct volume, import share, logistical alternatives, inventories and the capacity to absorb higher prices produce different results.
Asia concentrates physical exposure
China and India together received 44% of crude crossing Hormuz in 2025. The EIA reports that China, India, Japan and South Korea accounted for 74% of crude and condensate destinations in the first half of 2025.
| Market | Exposure | Cautious reading |
|---|---|---|
| China | Largest absolute volume. | A broad supplier portfolio helps, but scale makes rapid replacement difficult. |
| India | Regional crude and LNG. | Exposed to crude, freight and gas at the same time. |
| Japan and Korea | High import dependence. | Less room to offset a prolonged maritime disruption. |
LNG changes the map
More than 110 bcm of LNG crossed Hormuz in 2025 and almost 90% went to Asia. A major loss of supply would raise global competition for cargoes, including for buyers without direct Qatari contracts.
Europe: lower direct flow, high price exposure
Europe received about 4% of regional crude and just over 10% of LNG crossing Hormuz in 2025. Direct exposure is lower than Asia’s, but oil, LNG, freight, insurance, refining and inflation would still transmit the shock.
A ranking without false precision
China, India, Japan and South Korea form the first import-exposure group. Qatar and the UAE belong to another category: exporters whose access to world markets physically depends on the passage. Europe has lower direct exposure and high economic exposure.
How duration changes the outcome
A short incident primarily affects insurance and volatility. A disruption lasting weeks tests inventories and bypass routes. A prolonged closure creates physical production, storage and export constraints inside the Gulf.