The constraint is geographic
Ras Laffan’s facilities are inside the Persian Gulf. To reach the Arabian Sea and Asian or European markets, an LNG carrier must pass through Hormuz.
Going around Africa does not bypass Hormuz
The Cape of Good Hope can avoid Suez or Bab el-Mandeb after a ship has left the Gulf. It cannot replace the port’s only maritime exit.
An oil pipeline cannot carry LNG
LNG is gas cooled to roughly –162 °C and carried in specialised vessels. Saudi and Emirati bypass pipelines are designed for crude, not Qatari LNG.
An equivalent land exit would require regasification, a huge gas pipeline and new liquefaction on an outer coast: years of construction, not an emergency response.
What can actually be done
| Measure | Benefit | Limit |
|---|---|---|
| Cargo swaps | Rearrange deliveries. | Need another available cargo. |
| Inventories | Buffer short outages. | Finite and uneven. |
| Spot purchases | Replace deliveries. | Raise prices and displace other buyers. |
| Demand reduction | Balances the system. | Affects power and industry. |
Why the effect would be global
A major loss of Qatari supply would intensify competition between Asia and Europe for US, African and other cargoes. Spot prices, regional spreads, freight and risk premiums would react first.
What to verify
Ras Laffan loadings, LNG carriers completing outbound tracks, force-majeure notices, maritime warnings, waiting times and the joint movement of JKM, TTF and freight.