Hormuz: what the archive reveals and what it does not measure

We examine 44 retained records from 2026-07-12 → 2026-09-02. These are monitor decisions, not periodic vessel observations. System check: 2026-09-18T19:54:38Z; this does not refresh historical observation dates.

Uncertainty is not a closure measure

41 of 44 rows are INCIERTO (uncertain): 93.2%, calculated as 41 ÷ 44 × 100 and rounded to one decimal place. This describes the archive, not hours of closure, voyage risk or affected vessels.

A new record need not change the general state

Chronological comparison yields 6 changes of the general state label and 37 adjacent pairs retaining that label. The first row has no preceding comparison. A record can update an operational category or confidence without changing the general state. Publication counts and state-transition counts measure different things; neither establishes the classifier's accuracy.

Three corrections to the diary

1. Country names are not evidence of diplomacy: classification requires event terms.
2. Oil-price headlines remain market signals even when they mention strikes; they do not measure passage.
3. An updated headline at the same URL is not automatically a new story. More headlines without a changed assessment do not create another archive entry.

Reproduce the calculations

Download the exact records (CSV). Count rows without the header, filter state for INCIERTO and divide the two counts. Sort chronologically and compare adjacent state labels to reproduce transitions. The export contains only date, state, operational category and confidence, not personal information or system configuration.

44 rows have a date value. Missing periods are not filled. Retention and methodological changes limit the dataset: it cannot reconstruct physical traffic. Accuracy would require comparison against separately dated maritime evidence. The table and CSV use the same snapshot and are regenerated when the site is published.

Complete record used

Automatic calculations on the project archive; not external verification of transit.